Finishing line in sight for the promotion chasers

Nine games. That is all that separates Cardiff City from the Premier League.

The daunting task ahead is clear for all to see, the man with the task of taking Cardiff City to the Promised Land is someone who is no stranger to this division and more importantly, someone who knows what it takes to escape it, that man is Dave Jones. Jones was successful back in 2003/04 when he led Wolves to their first Premier League promotion in 20 years, in what was a rollercoaster season.

The comparisons between that season seven years ago and the up-and-down season in which Jones Cardiff City side are going through at the moment can be seen as considerably different however. With Wolves struggling to put together a run of victories (that may seem familiar) Jones looked increasingly likely to face the sack. This was to change however when a victory in the FA Cup over top-flight Newcastle led to a run of just two losses in 20 games.

Promotion glory in 2004 with Wolves

Wolves finished in the play-off zone that season and would go on to push aside Reading, before beating Sheffield United in the final at the Millennium Stadium. This goes to show that Jones can certainly handle the pressure; something he has been questioned of during his time with Cardiff City.

It is the season before however in which comparisons can be made. Wolves were in a commanding position in the league table when they then began to feel the pressure, picking up 10 points from 27 available in the final run-in, with rivals West Brom, in contrast, winning eight of their final 10 fixtures, they would pip Jones’ Wolves to the automatic promotion places, with Wolves missing out altogether after losing to Norwich in the play-off semi-final’s. If that wasn’t enough, rivals Birmingham City would eventually go on to gain promotion via the play-off places (Swansea City this season, anyone?)

So from what we know of Dave Jones and his strengths (gaining promotion, being able to take commanding positions in the league) and from his one main weakness (failing to remain in the commanding positions) it is clear to see that this has been brought over from his previous clubs, to the Bluebirds.

In his first season with Cardiff City, Jones’ men dropped 25 points in the last 30 available. This continued in the following season when a further 14 were dropped from the 30 available – an improvement though nonetheless. It was in the following season however when these statistics were truly highlighted when, after a fantastic win against Burnley, which put City eight points clear of the chasing pack, a run of dismal results followed, the highlight being the 6-0 hammering at the hands of Preston – the team which would eventually replace Cardiff in the play-off places by a single goal.

This surely had to be the motivation that Dave Jones needed the following season when City again found themselves in a fantastic position going into the last nine games. The season before proved to act as an inspiration, with Cardiff only dropping nine points from the 30 available, it was enough to secure a play-off spot, which Cardiff would eventually go on to ‘bottle’. Jones was back to his old tricks.

So close, yet so far for the Bluebirds

With nine games remaining of this season, City have so far dropped 14 points from a possible 30 played for, not a great run for a side who are strong candidates to go up via automatic promotion, never mind the play-offs. The Welsh club have a fixture with QPR to look forward to after the international break, but before that another ‘huge’ game – which every match in the final run seems to be. City face a Milwall side who are on a high after beating fellow promotion candidates QPR and most recently, Burnley.

A tough fixture it sure is, but Cardiff are no strangers to big games in the league this season, Swansea City away being one of them. It was a fixture that Swansea seemed to recover from quickly, with a fantastic win away at Middlesbrough the following weekend; the Swans haven’t looked back, finding themselves a point clear of rivals Cardiff going into the final stretch of the season.

Another side who have taken advantage of the recent slips from the chasing pack is Norwich, who are three points clear of the closest team, and four clear of Cardiff. With a tricky visit to in-form Hull this weekend, that could change.

If Norwich were to drop points it would be down to Cardiff to capitalise on this, something which they have failed to do in previous weeks. With sides around them dropping points, the Bluebirds failed to make the most of the situation, losing to Ipswich and Crystal Palace and drawing at home to Barnsley last weekend.

With just nine games remaining, any of six sides could gain automatic promotion

It’s certainly been a disappointing run of results for Dave Jones, and the bad news continued this week with the news that striker Michael Chopra is expected to be out for the remainder of the season; he will certainly be a big loss.

The injury could mean that Jones adapts his City side in order to accustom striker Jay Bothroyd, a player much like his side, who has failed to perform of late. If Jones did opt to go with the one striker up front, it would mean packing a five man midfield, something which may suit the side in a tough away game such as the one they will face at Millwall.

By 4:50 tomorrow the promotion picture will have taken another twist, and perhaps become a little clearer. With just nine games remaining, the automatic promotion place could realistically go to any of six sides. Dave Jones is no stranger to what it takes to escape this division, but one thing that could hold him back, is the fact that after so many years of trying, it may be another failed effort, in which his side fall just too short.